Some hypotheses about risk in venture capital investing

Abstract

Venture capital investing differs in important respects from investment decisions involving the securities of Fortune 500 companies, or decisions to purchase established companies, which are generally made in accord with widely recognized financial models. Investing in new ventures involves a high level of uncertainty as well as a high risk of failure. Venture capital investing is characterized by high variability in the outcomes of new ventures and in the performance of venture capital portfolios. Venture capital investing decisions are complicated by a general lack of quantifiable financial and market data for early-stage ventures, and investment decisions remain hostage to unanticipated competitors, market shifts, and financial cycles. Some observers have suggested that venture capital investment decisions are primarily subjective assessments. While the question of risk in venture capital investing has been addressed on an ad hoc basis in several empirical studies, there has been little effort to develop a theoretical framework of risk perceptions and risk-reduction strategies. Despite differences in investor experience, investment preferences, and tolerance for risk, venture capital managers share many common perceptions of the risks involved in investing in new ventures and the distribution of those risks over the venture-capital-funded phase of development. Venture capital managers also utilize many common behaviors and strategies in adapting to these risks. These perceptions and reactions to risk in investing, and strategies for controlling risk can, in theory, be used to construct a behavioral framework that can predict how venture capital managers will behave in choosing between various investment opportunities in order to minimize risk and to maximize potential returns. In an attempt to begin to identify various elements of such a behavioral framework of venture capital reactions to risk, the authors have drawn upon psychological risk theory of decision-making under uncertainty, including classic expected utility theory, later modifications to that theory by Kahneman and Tversky (1979). and Coombs and Huang's (1970) “portfolio approach” to risk, that are applicable to venture capital investing. These expected behaviors to risk have been used in conjunction with empirical studies of venture capital investment and portfolio outcomes, distributions of investments within portfolios, and venture capitalist perceptions of risk, to propose nine hypotheses about how venture capital managers behave in making investment decisions. These hypotheses include differences in variation and magnitude of returns for early-stage versus later-stage ventures, explanations of how risk distributions change over the stagewise development of new ventures, differences in the behavior of “aggressive” versus “conservative” investors in screening investment prospects, and strategies utilizing a lower “ideal level of risk” to reduce the chances of achieving negative or sub-normal final portfolio returns.