Some compelling intuitions about group consensus decisions, theoretical and empirical research, and interpersonal aggregation phenomena: Selected examples 1950–1990

Abstract

Intuitions about aggregate behavior can be very compelling, and sometimes even persist in the face of contrary evidence. An example of apparent intuition-based assumptions about group decision-making behavior from each of the past four decades is discussed in detail: (a) Group superiority relative to individual performance—the fifties; (b) exaggerated group risk-taking relative to individuals—the sixties; (c) group size and performance level—the seventies; and (d) decision-making performance of free discussion groups and (implicit) procedural constraints—the eighties.