Some causes of rapid changes in temperature patterns

Abstract

It was shown in another recent publication by the author that, for each sunspot cycle, there exists in the surface-atmosphere system (SAS) two quasi-sinusoidal temperature variations each at the frequency of the sunspot cycle. The first of these two variations is much smaller than the other one and is always in phase with the associated sunspot cycle. However, the second of the two variations is relatively huge and is always not in phase with the associated sunspot cycle. Here we illustratively describe how the smaller temperature variations associated with sunspot cycles participate in causing large and rapid changes in temperature patterns. Furthermore it is noted that El Nino events as well as the processes responsible for switchings of (temperature) amplitude-modulation states into each other are other key causes of rapid changes in temperature patterns. Finally we set up clear relationships between El Nino occurrence patterns and sunspot cycles, and then use these relationships to make an attempt at predicting the expected timing of the next El Nino event. Some physical justification for this attempted prediction is also given.