Abstract
Significance A recent spate of al-Shabaab attacks on security forces in Kenya and the assassination of several senior Somali security personnel have raised fears of a potential resurgence of the militant group. Meanwhile, in the aftermath of the London conference on Somalia on May 11, a Joint Review of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), conducted by the Federal Government of Somalia, the African Union, the UN and other key international partners, is underway. Impacts An end to an arms embargo could bolster domestic capacity, but UN Security Council requirements are unlikely to be met in the short term. Looser US military rules of engagement could result in mounting civilian deaths and potential international law violations. The ongoing Gulf crisis could threaten to undermine the London conference consensus among international partners.
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