Solving water scarcity challenges in arid regions: A novel approach employing human-based meta-heuristics and machine learning algorithm for groundwater potential mapping

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Addressing water scarcity challenges in arid regions is a pressing concern and demands innovative solutions for accurate groundwater potential mapping (GPM). This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of advanced modeling techniques to enhance the precision of GPM. This study, conducted in the Zayandeh Rood watershed, Iran, employed a spatial database comprising 16 influential factors on groundwater potential and data from 175 wells. This study introduced an innovative approach to GPM by enhancing the Random Forest (RF) algorithm. This enhancement involved integrating three metaheuristic algorithms inspired by human behavior: ICA (Imperialist Competitive Algorithm), TLBO (Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization), and SBO (Student Psychology Based Optimization). The modeling process used 70% training data and 30% evaluation data. Data preprocessing was performed using the multicollinearity test method and frequency ratio (FR) technique to refine the dataset. Subsequently, the GPM was generated using four distinct models, demonstrating the combined power of machine learning and human-inspired metaheuristic algorithms. The performance of the models was systematically assessed through extensive statistical analyses, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), Friedman tests, chi-squared tests, and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. RF-ICA and RF-SPBO emerged as frontrunners, displaying statistically comparable accuracy and significantly outperforming RF-TLBO and the non-optimized RF model. The results of the GPM revealed the exceptional accuracy of RF-ICA, which exhibited a commanding AUC score of 0.865, underscoring its superiority in discriminating between different groundwater potential classes. RF-SPBO also displayed strong performance with an AUC of 0.842, highlighting its effectiveness in inaccurate classification. RF-TLBO and the non-optimized RF model achieved AUC values of 0.813 and 0.810, respectively, indicating comparable performance. The outcomes of this study provide valuable insights for policymakers, offering a robust framework for tackling water scarcity challenges in arid regions through precise and reliable groundwater potential assessments.