Solar-TK: A Data-Driven Toolkit for Solar PV Performance Modeling and Forecasting

Abstract

Solar energy capacity is continuing to increase. The key challenge with integrating solar into buildings and the electric grid is its high power generation variability, which is a function of many factors, including a site's location, time, weather, and numerous physical attributes. There has been significant prior work on solar performance modeling and forecasting that infers a site's current and future solar generation based on these factors. Accurate solar performance models and forecasts are also a pre-requisite for conducting a wide range of building and grid energy-efficiency research. Unfortunately, much of the prior work is not accessible to researchers, either because it has not been released as open source, is time-consuming to re-implement, or requires access to proprietary data sources. To address the problem, we present Solar-TK, a data-driven toolkit for solar performance modeling and forecasting that is simple, extensible, and publicly accessible. Solar-TK's simple approach models and forecasts a site's solar output given only its location and a small amount of historical generation data. Solar-TK's extensible design includes a small collection of independent modules that connect together to implement basic modeling and forecasting, while also enabling users to implement new energy analytics. We plan to release Solar-TK as open source to enable research that requires realistic solar models and forecasts, and to serve as a baseline for comparing new solar modeling and forecasting techniques. We compare Solar-TK's simple approach with PVlib and show that it yields comparable accuracy. We present three case studies showing how Solar-TK can advance energy-efficiency research.