Abstract
The viability of solar thermal steam generation for thermal enhanced oil recovery (TEOR) in heavy-oil sands was evaluated using San Joaquin Valley, CA data. The effectiveness of solar TEOR was quantified through reservoir simulation, economic analysis, and life-cycle assessment. Reservoir simulations with continuous but variable rate steam injection were compared with a base-case Tulare Sand steamflood project. For equivalent average injection rates, comparable breakthrough times and recovery factors of 65% of the original oil in place were predicted, in agreement with simulations in the literature. Daily cyclic fluctuations in steam injection rate do not greatly impact recovery. Oil production rates do, however, show seasonal variation. Economic viability was established using historical prices and injection/production volumes from the Kern River oil field. For comparison, this model assumes that present day steam generation technologies were implemented at TEOR startup in 1980. All natural gas cogeneration and 100% solar fraction scenarios had the largest and nearly equal net present values (NPV) of $12.54 B and $12.55 B, respectively. Solar fraction refers to the steam provided by solar steam generation. Given its large capital cost, the 100% solar case shows the greatest sensitivity to discount rate and no sensitivity to natural gas price. Because there are very little emissions associated with day-to-day operations from the solar thermal system, life-cycle emissions are significantly lower than conventional systems even when the embodied energy of the structure is considered. We estimate that less than 1g of CO2/MJ of refined gasoline results from the TEOR stage of production if solar energy provides all steam. By this assessment, solar thermal or supplemental solar generation systems appear to be a preferred alternative to fully conventional systems using natural gas in areas with large solar insolation.
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