SOLAR2000 v2.30 and SOLARFLARE v1.01: New Capabilities for Space System Operations

Abstract

Space system operational and mission planning users have indicated a strong interest in a) high timeand spatially-resolved irradiances, b) historical 3-hour data, c) improved proxies, indices, and formats, as well as d) new models and datasets. The applications for solar irradiance products that have been identified as most important include characterizations of neutral atmosphere and ionosphere densities along with spacecraft materials’ properties under energetic photon bombardment and photon-induced surface charging. We report on major improvements to the SOLAR2000 (S2K) model series that addresses these user interests. First, for the neutral density users, the S10.7 index (26-34 nm EUV) of chromospheric plage and active region extreme ultraviolet solar irradiance and the M10.7 proxy (145-165 nm FUV) of aeronomically important photospheric background and network Schumann-Runge Continuum far ultraviolet irradiances are now provided. These complement the traditional F10.7 proxy for transition region/cool corona active region XUV–EUV (0.1-121.0 nm) energy. These three daily and 81-day smoothed indices/proxies, with 1-, 5, and 1-day lags, respectively, are the drivers for the new Jacchia-Bowman empirical thermospheric density model (JB2006) that has reduced by half mass density uncertainties compared to previous Jacchiaand MSIS-type models. Second, for ionosphere and spacecraft surface users, nowcast data is assimilated real-time in S2K from the GOES XRS instrument with 2-minute cadence, 1-minute granularity, 7-minute latency, and 6-hour predicts relative to the current epoch. These are used to produce data-driven high time and spectral resolution, physics-based real-time flare evolution assessment through SOLARFLARE. SOLAR2000 continues to produce 1-hour cadence, 1-day granularity, and 4.5-month predicts of high spectral resolution irradiances or broadband indices. The combination of these changes is that S2K has been transformed into a hybrid model that includes physics-based, observation-based, and data-driven modeling.