Abstract
PurposeThis study aims to exploit the abundance of solar energy resources for socioeconomic development in the semi -arid Northeastern Brazil as a potent adaptation tool to global climate change. It points out a set of conjuncture factors that allow us to foresee a new paradigm of sustainable development for the region by transforming the sun’s radiant energy into electricity through distributed photovoltaic generation. The new paradigm, as presented in this essay, has the transformative potential to free the region from past regional development dogma, which was dependent on the scarce water resource, and the marginal and predatory use of its Caatinga Biome.Design/methodology/approachThe research uses a pre ante design, following the procedures of scenario building, as an adaptation mechanism to climate change in the sector of energy generation and socioeconomic inclusion.FindingsThe scenarios of socioeconomic resilience to climate change based on the abundance of solar radiation, rather than the scarcity of water, demonstrates its potential as a global adaptation paradigm to climate change.Research limitations/implicationsThe developments proposed are dependent on federal legislation changes, allowing the small producer to be remunerated by the energy produced.Practical implicationsThe proposed smart grid photovoltaic generation program increases the country's resiliency to the effect of droughts and climate change.Social implicationsAs proposed, the program allows for the reversion of a pattern of long term poverty in semi-arid Northeast Brazil.Originality/valueThe exploitation of the characteristics of abundance of the semiarid climate, i.e. its very condition of semi-aridity with abundant solar radiation, is itself an advantage factor toward adaption to unforeseen drought events. Extensive previous research has focused on weighting and monitoring drought i.e. the paradigm of scarcity. The interplay between exploiting Northeast Brazil’s abundant factors and climate change adaptation, especially at the small farmer levels constitutes a discovery never before contemplated.
Highlights
The development of agricultural economies is ubiquitously associated with fertile soils, abundant water resources and high solar radiation
The mean electricity that can be generated per square meter of solar panels during a day in the Northeast Brazil (NEB) follows from equation (1): PVpot 1⁄4 iMed * efficiency factor in the conversion (eConv) * eOper 1⁄4 0:840 kilowatt hour (kWh)=m2=day
Conclusions and policy implications Challenging the dogma of the drought as a causal link to poverty in the semi-arid portion of Northeast Brazil (NEB), this article presents a conceptual proposal for the rational use of the abundant solar irradiation resources of the semi-arid climates of the world for their sustained socioeconomic development
Summary
The development of agricultural economies is ubiquitously associated with fertile soils, abundant water resources and high solar radiation. Most of the global climate models used in the preparation of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and the Special Report on 1.5 C increase (IPCC SR1.5C) predict the increase in water deficit and the expansion of drier areas in the NEB until the second half of the twenty-first century (IPCC, 2013, 2018) This means potential reductions of 15-20 per cent in the São Francisco river[1] (Figure 1) flow rates, the largest river flowing into the NEB, the reduced rainfall by up to 20 per cent by 2040, and a temperature increase of up to 1°C (Marengo et al, 2011)
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