Solar potential mapping to address energy poverty in a data poor region: A case study in Plovdiv, Bulgaria

Abstract

Bulgaria suffers significantly from energy poverty. With the EU goal to reduce 55% of its emissions by 2030, careful considerations are needed in the decarbonization policies within the energy system to avoid redistributive consequences that affect vulnerable groups.   Decarbonizing the building sector through photovoltaic (PV) solar technology is a viable option and supported by EU directives. PV technology offers financial benefits for the public and reduces energy dependency from the grid. Mapping the solar potential of a building is needed to determine whether an investment in PV is viable. Solar potential mapping that incorporates socio-economic factors can inform policymakers on alleviating energy poverty.   In this paper, a solar potential mapping approach using ArcGIS Pro is developed that allows physical, technical, as well as socio-economic aspects, including social considerations. As a case study for Bulgaria, the city of Plovdiv was chosen.  Open datasets have been used. Energy affordability is used which can be determined on the basis of energy consumption and energy prices.   The results show that there is a high solar energy potential in Plovdiv, while the actual potential depends on which irradiance dataset is used. The potential is estimated to supply the entire city's electricity needs by 20-58%, which translates to providing electricity needs of about 90,000 to 135,000 inhabitants. The solar potential exceeds the building energy consumption needs of 200-300 kWh/m² in all the buildings in Plovdiv. The estimated potential savings after PV installation from utility bills is between €21-32 million annually. The socio-economic factors help place the potential values in perspective, thus visualizing the benefits of distributed PV systems. It strengthens the argument of developing policies including energy poverty indicators.