Solar photovoltaic power output forecasting using machine learning technique

Dinh Van Tai

doi:10.1088/1742-6596/1327/1/012051

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) systems are used around the world to generate solar power. Solar power sources are irregular in nature due to the output power of PV systems being intermittent and depending greatly on environmental factors. These factors include, but are not limited to, irradiance, humidity, PV surface temperature, speed of the wind. Due to uncertainties in the photovoltaic generation, it is critical to precisely envisage the solar power generation. Solar power forecasting is necessary for supply and demand planning in an electric grid. This prediction is highly complex and challenging as solar power generation is weather-dependent and uncontrollable. This paper describes the effects of various environmental parameters on the PV system output. Prediction models based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and regression models are evaluated for selective factors. The selection is done by using the correlation-based feature selection (CSF) and ReliefF techniques. The ANN model outperforms all other techniques that were discussed.

Highlights

The global economic policy, climate conditions and security issues of energy are highly affected by the current situation of global warming and the energy crisis over the past few decades due to the excessive consumption of fossil fuels
A study done by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) showed that, in 2014, the total in-progress solar power capacity was 177 GW, which demonstrates its rising popularity [2]
Due to the discontinuous and uncontrollable nature of solar power, the precise forecast of solar power generation is very important for a grid operator and the solar electric power supply companies

Summary

Introduction

The global economic policy, climate conditions and security issues of energy are highly affected by the current situation of global warming and the energy crisis over the past few decades due to the excessive consumption of fossil fuels. This situation has been the motivation for the development and use of clean and sustainable energy sources, which can serve as alternatives to the present energy production [1]. The use of solar power energy is rapidly growing, as it is a renewable form of energy.

Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd

Conclusion