Solar irradiance forecast and far-side imaging

Abstract

This paper presents a new approach to forecasting short-term Lyα solar irradiance variations due to the presence and evolution of magnetically heated regions in the Sun’s outer atmosphere. This scheme is based on images of the solar disk at key wavelengths, currently Ca II K filtergrams, maps of backscattered solar Lyα from the interplanetary medium, and helioseismic images of large far-side active regions. The combination of these resources allows accurate forecasts of the UV solar irradiance several days in advance. The technique takes into consideration the evolution of recently observed activity on the Sun’s near surface as well as active regions on the Sun’s far side. The far-side helioseismic maps and the Lyα backscattering are very important, because of the long period of time features spend on the Sun’s far side compared with their typical evolution time and their relatively sudden appearance on the near side. We describe the basics of the forecasting technique and apply it to a case study that shows how the technique dramatically improves Lyα irradiance forecasting. An extension of the technique described here promises realistic forecasts of the entire FUV/EUV solar spectral irradiance spectrum.