Solar induced variations of odd nitrogen: Multiple regression analysis of UARS HALOE data

Abstract

A linear multiple regression statistical model is applied to estimate the solar induced component of odd nitrogen variability in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere using UARS HALOE data for 1991–2003. Consistent with earlier studies, evidence is obtained for a decadal NOx variation at the highest available latitudes (50° – 70°) that projects positively onto the solar cycle. This variation, which is most statistically significant in the Southern Hemisphere, also correlates positively with the auroral Ap index. It is therefore probably caused by downward transport during the polar night of thermospheric and mesospheric odd nitrogen. In addition, at low latitudes near and above the stratopause, evidence is obtained for an inverse solar cycle NOx variation. It is suggested that this low‐latitude response may be caused primarily by increased photolysis of NO under solar maximum conditions. Throughout most of the rest of the stratosphere, no statistically significant response is obtained.