Solar geoeffective phenomena: Impact on the near-Earth space and the opportunity to forecast

Abstract

the state of near-Earth space (NES) are extremely large flare events and coronal holes. We attribute to the class of flare phenomena solar flares with a complete spectrum of dynamic manifestations of the mass motion and radiation in all ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum as well as solar filament eruptions with all accompanying phenomena. The possibility to predict geoeective solar phenomena and their eects on NES is based on the analysis of correlations: emergence of new magnetic fluxes in the solar atmosphere, their physical characteristics, and the character of their interaction with the already present magnetic field; time distribution of large flares within active regions; temporal and spatial distribution of solar filament eruptions; formation, distribution, and evolution of solar coronal holes (CH). The agents causing NES disturbances are transient structures: coronal mass ejections, which result from active processes in flares and filament eruptions; high-speed flows of solar plasma following a shock wave from large solar flares and solar filament eruptions or outflowing from regions with an open magnetic configuration. Prediction for the beginning of NES disturbances and of their duration is possible for a period from 1 to 5 days and for coronal holes for a period of one solar revolution (27.3 days). This makes possible planning various technological, biological, and medical experiments together with protective measures for the team and instruments of space laboratories. INDEX TERMS: 7536 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy: Solar activity cycle; 7899 Space Plasma Physics: General or miscellaneous; 7974 Space Weather: Solar eects; 7984 Space Weather: Space radiation environment; KEYWORDS: Solar geoeective phenomena, near-Earth space, forecasting, cyclicity of solar activity.