Abstract
In this analysis, we explore the role of solar energy, specifically utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) technology, in supplying the world's growing demand for energy while limiting the impact of climate change by reducing carbon dioxide emissions. We present a range of cost paths for the technology and examine the role of solar energy in the global energy system under these paths and a reference scenario. We also assess the impacts of these cost paths on the role of solar power under carbon constraint scenarios designed to stabilize the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next century. Our analysis shows that solar energy can play a significant role in the future global energy system, and that the benefit of the solar energy option increases as the limitation on carbon emissions becomes more stringent. But, lowering the cost of power production to the point at which solar is competitive with other options is critical if solar power is to become a core generation technology. Aggressively lowering the cost of solar energy in the next few decades will ensure that solar energy technologies are a prominent part of any global energy system, so the potential value of research in solar energy is great. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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