Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting Algorithms and Associated False Alarms

Abstract

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are known to occur following solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However, some high-energy solar events do not result in SEPs being detected at Earth, and it is these types of event which may be termed “false alarms”.We define two simple SEP forecasting algorithms based upon the occurrence of a magnetically well-connected CME with a speed in excess of 1500~mbox{km},mbox{s}^{-1} (a “fast” CME) or a well-connected X-class flare and analyse them with respect to historical datasets. We compare the parameters of those solar events which produced an enhancement of {>},40~mbox{MeV} protons at Earth (an “SEP event”) and the parameters of false alarms.We find that an SEP forecasting algorithm based solely upon the occurrence of a well-connected fast CME produces fewer false alarms (28.8%) than an algorithm which is based solely upon a well-connected X-class flare (50.6%). Both algorithms fail to forecast a relatively high percentage of SEP events (53.2% and 50.6%, respectively).Our analysis of the historical datasets shows that false-alarm X-class flares were either not associated with any CME, or were associated with a CME slower than 500~mbox{km},mbox{s}^{-1}; false-alarm fast CMEs tended to be associated with flare classes lower than M3.A better approach to forecasting would be an algorithm which takes as its base the occurrence of both CMEs and flares. We define a new forecasting algorithm which uses a combination of CME and flare parameters, and we show that the false-alarm ratio is similar to that for the algorithm based upon fast CMEs (29.6%), but the percentage of SEP events not forecast is reduced to 32.4%.Lists of the solar events which gave rise to {>},40~mbox{MeV} protons and the false alarms have been derived and are made available to aid further study.