Abstract
AbstractSolar dimming has been increasing in rapidly developing regions (China and India) and threatening food security. Although previous studies have summarized the effects of climate change‐associated increases in temperature on agriculture, few have examined the effects due to solar dimming. Here, we analyzed the effects of solar dimming on maize on the North China Plain (NCP). It is reported that solar dimming intensified and maize yield potential decreased since the 1960s. The total decrease in solar radiation for the whole maize growing season of this period was 17%, and solar dimming explained 87% of the decrease in yield potential. Meanwhile, solar dimming was closely related to the level of anthropogenic fine particulate matter such as PM2.5. The PM2.5 concentration in the NCP averaged 56 μg/m3 in 2014 and 2015, which was approximately three times greater than the global mean. Our results suggested that a 10 µg/m3 increase of PM2.5 concentration in this region was together with a 55 MJ/m2 decrease in solar radiation. Solar dimming threatened food security in the NCP and probably in other areas of the world and has profound implications for ongoing and future efforts such as Clean Air Action and other measures.
Highlights
In addition to greatly affecting climate, solar radiation is the ultimate energy source for crop production at the Earth's surface (Monteith, 1977; Wild et al, 2005)
Solar dimming or brightening, which is commonly assessed as decreases or increases in decadal-level incident solar radiation, will substantially change the net radiation arriving at crop vegetation canopies and thereby affect crop photosynthesis and crop yield (Wild et al, 2005)
We found solar dimming resulted in a 17% decrease in solar radiation during the whole maize season since the 1960s in the North China Plain (NCP) (Figure 1)
Summary
In addition to greatly affecting climate, solar radiation is the ultimate energy source for crop production at the Earth's surface (Monteith, 1977; Wild et al, 2005). One recent quantitative study attributed 27% of the increase in yield in the USA Corn Belt from 1984 to 2013 to solar brightening (Tollenaar, Fridgen, Tyagi, Stackhouse, & Kumudini, 2017). It is still poorly understood for the response of crop yield to decadal-scale changes in solar radiation. Research on maize in the NCP would offer a model for quantifying the effects of decadal changes in solar radiation on crop yields in other rapidly developing regions of the world. We collected the PM2.5 concentration data for each site in 2014 and 2015 to examine the relationships among changes in solar radiation, yield potential, and aerosol emission (PM2.5 concentration)
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