Solar activity explored with new wavelet methods

Abstract

Abstract. In order to improve the forecasts of the impact of solar activity on the terrestrial environment on time scales longer than days, improved understanding and forecasts of the solar activity are needed. The first results of a new approach of modelling and forecasting solar activity are presented. Time series of solar activity indicators, such as sunspot number, group sunspot number, F10.7, E10.7, solar magnetic mean field, Mount Wilson plage and sunspot index, have been studied with new wavelet methods; ampligrams and time-scale spectra. Wavelet power spectra of the sunspot number for the period 1610 up to the present show not only that a dramatic increase in the solar activity took place after 1940 but also that an interesting change occurred in 1990. The main 11-year solar cycle was further studied with ampligrams for the period after 1850. time-scale spectra were used to examine the processes behind the variability of the solar activity. Several interesting deterministic and more stochastic features were detected in the time series of the solar activity indicators. The solar nature of these features will be further studied. Keywords. Solar physics, astrophysics and astronomy (Magnetic fields; Stellar interiors and dynamo theory) – Space plasma physics (nonlinear phenomena)