Solar Activity and Cosmic Ray Influence on the Climate

Abstract

The solar activity cycles affect various parameters of surface areas, including rains, snow covers, river streamflows and other hydrological cycles. These processes are due mainly to the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) variations, followed by weather and climate changes. Recently a new mechanism of climate modulation, based on cosmic ray variations, has been discovered. This mechanism explains chain processes arising from cosmic ray (CR) modulation by the heliosphere and geomagnetic field, followed by ozone production in near tropopause and water content change. The atmospheric water is the most powerful greenhouse gas and its changes produce significant variations of the temperature. The interconnection between the solar cycles, CR and temperature and precipitation variability over North-Eastern Europe is investigated by means of reconstructed TSI and CR for the period 1766–2000. The time series are analyzed by the Method of Partial Fourier Approximation (PFA) and Singular spectrum Analysis (SSA). The oscillations of CR, solar and climate indices have some common cycles in a set of narrow frequency bands. The possibility to create decadal forecast models, based on solar activity cycles, is discussed.