Abstract
The paper contrasts results obtained by the partially factored limit state design method and a more advanced Random Finite Difference Method (RFDM) in a benchmark problem of slope stability analysis with variable undrained shear strength. Local Average Subdivision method was used to simulate the non-Gaussian random variables. The key difference between the methods is that RFDM takes into account spatial variability of soil parameters allowing slope failure to occur naturally along the path of least resistance. The probabilistic method leads to predictions of the "probability of slope failure" as opposed to the more traditional "factor of safety" measure of slope safety in the limit state design method; however, they give significant different results depending on the level of the variability. Analyses conducted using Monte Carlo Simulation show that the same partial factor can have very different levels of risk depending on the degree of uncertainty of the mean value of the soil shear strength. Calibration studies show the partial factor necessary to achieve target probability values.
Highlights
It is well recognized that the soil variability has a significant effect on the stability of slopes
The research presented in this paper focuses on investigation and quantifying the influence of soil variability on slope stability using probabilistic analysis
Prior to the probabilistic analyses, deterministic finite difference analyses were conducted using limit state design method according to the material factors defined in Eurocode 7
Summary
It is well recognized that the soil variability has a significant effect on the stability of slopes. In practice, the variability is not considered properly in routine slope stability analysis. This is due mainly to the fact that the effects of soil variability are complex and difficult to quantify. The limit state design method has some advantages comparing to the traditional factor of safety method, the methods generally called ‘deterministic’ which cannot simulate the degree of soil variability. EN1990 states that the information provided in Annex C, which includes guidance on the reliability index values, may be used as a basis for probabilistic design methods. The research presented in this paper focuses on investigation and quantifying the influence of soil variability on slope stability using probabilistic analysis. Modern Applied Science analysis of a slope in Monte Carlo framework
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