Soil Organic Carbon Stock Prediction: Fate under 2050 Climate Scenarios, the Case of Eastern Ethiopia

Abstract

Soil Organic carbon (SOC) is vital to the soil’s ecosystem functioning as well as improving soil fertility. Slight variation in C in the soil has significant potential to be either a source of CO2 in the atmosphere or a sink to be stored in the form of soil organic matter. However, modeling SOC spatiotemporal changes was challenging due to lack of data to represent the high spatial heterogeneity in soil properties. Less expensive techniques, digital soil mapping (DSM) combined with space-for-time substitution (SFTS), were applied to predict the present and projected SOC stock for temperature and rainfall projections under different climate scenarios represented by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5). The relationship between environmental covariates (n = 16) and measured SOC stock (148 samples) was developed using a random forest model. Then, the temporal changes in SOC stock over the baseline were developed for the top 30 cm soil depth of the selected districts (Chiro Zuria, Kuni, Gemechis and Mieso) of West Hararghe Zone at 30 m resolution. The model validation using the random sample of 20% of the data showed that the model explained 44% of the variance (R2) with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 8.96, a mean error (ME) of 0.16, and a Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) of 0.88. Temperature was the most important predictor factor influencing the spatial distribution of SOC stock. An overall net gain of SOC stock over the present C stock was expected in the study area by 2050. The gain in areas with the lower baseline SOC stock counterbalanced the loss in areas with the higher baseline stock. The changes in the SOC stock depended on land use land cover (LULC), soil type, and agro-ecological zones. By 2050, cropland is supposed to lose its SOC stock under all RCPs; therefore, appropriate decisions are crucial to compensate for the loss of C.