Abstract
The expected increase in precipitation and temperature in Scandinavia, and especially short-time heavy precipitation, will increase the frequency of flooding. Urban areas are the most vulnerable, and specifically, the road infrastructure. The accumulation of large volumes of water and sediments on road-stream intersections gets severe consequences for the road drainage structures. This study integrates the spatial and temporal soil moisture properties into the research about flood prediction methods by a case study of two areas in Sweden, Västra Götaland and Värmland, which was affected by severe flooding in August 2014. Soil moisture data are derived from remote-sensing techniques, with a focus on the soil moisture-specific satellites ASCAT and SMOS. Furthermore, several physical catchments descriptors (PCDs) are analyzed and the result shows that larger slopes and drainage density, in general, mean a higher risk of flooding. The precipitation is the same; however, it can be concluded that more precipitation in most cases gives higher soil moisture values. The lack, or the dimensioning, of road drainage structures seems to have a large impact on the flood risk as more sediment and water can be accumulated at the road-stream intersection. The results show that the method implementing soil moisture satellite data is promising for improving the reliability of flooding.
Highlights
Global warming is proceeding faster than ever before, most likely as a result of increased pressure from human activities
Transport constructions and design In Västra Götaland, four out of five of the areas affected by flooding in 2014 lack a large road bridge
The results of analyzing physical catchment descriptors (PCDs), precipitation, and soil moisture show that larger slopes and drainage density, in general, mean higher risk of flooding
Summary
Global warming is proceeding faster than ever before, most likely as a result of increased pressure from human activities. The EU Green Paper report (European Commission 2007) identified Scandinavia as one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change associated with global warming, due to the large increases in precipitation which are to be expected. Climate change will most likely increase the frequency of intense short-term precipitation events, which would have consequences for runoff in urban areas considering the large areas of impervious surfaces which they contain, which limits infiltration capacity (Bates et al 2008; Lenderink and van Meijgaard 2008; Olsson and Foster 2013). The increase in runoff for Scandinavia and Sweden is projected to be around 20% more by 2090 compared with 1980–1999 (Bates et al 2008).
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