Abstract
PurposeThis study aims to present the climate change effect on soil moisture regimes in Mexico in a global 1.5°C warming scenario.Design/methodology/approachThe soil moisture regimes were determined using the Newhall simulation model with the database of mean monthly precipitation and temperature at a scale of 1: 250,000 for the current scenario and with the climate change scenarios associated with a mean global temperature increase of 1.5°C, considering two Representative Concentration Pathways, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 and three general models of atmospheric circulation, namely, GFDL, HADGEM and MPI. The different vegetation types of the country were related to the soil moisture regimes for current conditions and for climate change.FindingsAccording to the HADGEM and MPI models, almost the entire country is predicted to undergo a considerable increase in soil moisture deficit, and part of the areas of each moisture regime will shift to the next drier regime. The GFDL model also predicts this trend but at smaller proportions.Originality/valueThe changes in soil moisture at the regional scale that reveal the impacts of climate change and indicate where these changes will occur are important elements of the knowledge concerning the vulnerability of soils to climate change. New cartography is available in Mexico.
Highlights
With the increase in mean global temperature, regional impacts and local capacity for adapting vary enormously from one region to another (Wang et al, 2017)
The second part consisted of estimating the ratios of mean air temperature and mean monthly precipitation for the climate change scenarios associated with an increase in mean global temperature of 1.5°C for the country and applying them to the databases of areas of climatic influence (ACI) averages and determine the soil moisture regimes for the climate change scenario
The Newhall simulation model considers soil to be a water reservoir that extends from the surface down to the depth of an available water holding a capacity of 200 mm or the specific value according to the soil thickness
Summary
With the increase in mean global temperature, regional impacts and local capacity for adapting vary enormously from one region to another (Wang et al, 2017). One of the key impacts will be on water resources (Arnell et al, 2016). To reduce the impacts and risks of global warming in the different human and natural systems, the international community, in the Paris accord, established as an objective to restrict the increase in mean global temperature to 2°C above preindustrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5°C (UNFCCC, 2015). The full terms of this licence may be seen at http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/ 4.0/legalcode
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