Soil Erosion Assessment and Prediction in Urban Landscapes: A New G2 Model Approach

Siniša Polovina,Jovan Kovačević,Ratko Ristić,Boris Radić,Nikola Živanović,Vukašin Milčanović

doi:10.3390/app11094154

Siniša Polovina, Jovan Kovačević + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/app11094154

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Journal: Applied sciences	Publication Date: May 1, 2021
Citations: 6	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: University of Belgrade

Abstract

Soil erosion is a global problem that negatively affects the quality of the environment, the availability of natural resources, as well as the safety of inhabitants. Soil erosion threatens the functioning of urban areas, which was the reason for choosing the territory of the Master Plan of Belgrade (Serbia) as the research area. The calculation of soil erosion loss was analyzed using the G2 erosion model. The model belongs to a group of empirical models and is based on the synthesis of the equation from the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the Erosion Potential Method (EPM). The estimation of soil degradation was analyzed in two time periods (2001 and 2019), which represent the time boundaries of the management of the Master Plan of Belgrade. The novel approach used in this research is based on using the land cover inventory as a dynamic indicator of the urbanization process. Land cover was identified using remote sensing, machine learning techniques, and the random forest algorithm applied to multispectral satellite images of the Landsat mission in combination with spectral indices. Climatic parameters were analyzed on the basis of data from meteorological stations (first scenario, i.e., 2001), as well as on simulations of changes based on climate scenario RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathways) concerning the current condition of the land cover (second scenario). A comparative analysis of the two time periods identified a slight reduction in total soil loss. For the first period, the average soil loss value is 4.11 t·ha−1·y−1. The analysis of the second period revealed an average value of 3.63 t·ha−1·y−1. However, the increase in non-porous surfaces has led to a change in the focus of soil degradation. Increased average soil loss as one of the catalysts of torrential flood frequencies registered on natural and semi-natural areas were 43.29% and 16.14%, respectively. These results are a significant contribution to the study of soil erosion in urban conditions under the impact of climate change.

Highlights

Erosion is one of the most important contemporary problems of soil degradation and a significant factor endangering the environment all around the world [1]
As well as natural and semi-natural elements, into non-porous areas. Such faces cause thethe cessation of of natural processes surfaces cause cessation natural processesand andhave haveaahighly highlynegative negative impact impact on on the the land surface and groundwater regime causing the intensification of rapid surface runoff, land surface and groundwater regime causing the intensification of rapid surface runoff, the frequency of ofhigh highwaters, waters,urban urban floods, and intensification of erosion processes the frequency floods, and thethe intensification of erosion processes
Soil soil erosion can presents a vector of negative impacts and lead to endangered public erosion can presents a vector of negative impacts and lead to endangered public health health through pollution affecting water supply

Summary

Introduction

Erosion is one of the most important contemporary problems of soil degradation and a significant factor endangering the environment all around the world [1]. With the development of anthropogenic systems, through the processes of urbanization and inadequate use of natural resources, the process of soil erosion has been intensified in various structural and functional entities [5,6,7]. About 450,000,000 ha arable land in the world was found to be unproductive until the mid-1990s, and it is estimated that 10 million ha of arable land is lost each year due to soil erosion [10,11]. In Europe, 2% of agricultural land is lost due to urbanization every ten years [13] These processes of modification of urban landscapes have resulted in the development of erosion processes of different types, which under the conditions of changed climatic parameters, have become one of the main catalysts for the occurrence of torrential floods [14]. One of the most important environmental problems related to the trifecta of impacts of urbanization—soil erosion—

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