Socio-economic risk factors and wildfire crime in Italy: a quantile panel approach

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the socio-economic determinants of environmental crimes such as those focused on wildfire in Italy using panel data at the regional level. We also investigate the effect of economic downturns on wildfire crime. Using the nonadditive fixed effect quantile panel regression model, it was found that socio-economic factors, such as material deprivation, play an important role in driving wildfire crime. Also, risk factors such as unemployment and income inequality were seen to affect the probability of crime in the same direction. On the other hand, a negative relationship between level of education and wildfire crime was found. The results for business cycle support the conjecture that economic downturns have a significant impact on the probability of environmental crime and that the effect is particularly binding in the southern regions where unemployment and income inequality are greater. We also found evidence of a positive correlation between organised crime and wildfire crime. Once again, the grip of organised crime appears to be stronger in the southern regions.