Abstract

BackgroundExtreme heat events are the number one cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States. The current system of alert for extreme heat events does not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature derived from thermal remote sensing data.ResultsComparison of logistic regression models indicates that supplementing known sociodemographic risk factors with remote sensing estimates of land surface temperature improves the delineation of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat events.ConclusionThermal remote sensing data can be utilized to improve understanding of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat. The refinement of current risk assessment systems could increase the likelihood of survival during extreme heat events and assist emergency personnel in the delivery of vital resources during such disasters.

Highlights

  • Extreme heat events are the number one cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States

  • The impact of climate change on human health is a major concern for the global public health community [1,2,3,4,5]

  • Model 2 included only land surface temperature (LST) variables extracted from Landsat TM data

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Summary

Introduction

Extreme heat events are the number one cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States. Health outcomes expected to be impacted by climate change include, but are not limited to, asthma, heart disease, infectious diseases and heat-related illnesses [6,7,8,9]. In North America, extreme heat events (EHEs) are the number one cause of weather-related mortality [10]. This is likely the case for countries across the world, it is difficult to prove due to lack of health surveillance data [11]. Climate models project year-round temperatures across North America for the first half of the 21st century will warm approximately 1 to 3°C [12], increasing the magnitude and duration of EHEs in portions of the. Late in the 21st century, projected annual warming is likely to be 2 to 3°C across the western, southern, and eastern continental margins, but more than 5°C at higher latitudes[13], where many U.S urban areas that have been affected by lethal heat waves are located

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