Socio-economic Impacts—Agricultural Systems

Abstract

Europe is one of the world’s largest and most productive suppliers of food and fibre. In the North Sea region, agroecosystems vary from highly productive farming systems such as the arable cropping systems of western Europe to low-input and low-output farming systems with or without livestock. Climate change impacts on agricultural production will vary across the North Sea region, both in terms of crops grown and yields obtained. Given adequate water and nutrient supply, a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration could lead to yield increases of 20–40 % for most crops grown in the North Sea region. The high-input farming systems could also respond favourably to modest warming. Extreme weather events may severely disrupt crop production. Increased temperature and more frequent extreme weather events could affect animal production through changes in feed production, changes in the availability of grazing, direct heat stress, and increased risk of disease. Overall, there seems to be potential for agriculture in the North Sea region to adapt to the changing climate in such a way that productivity and profitability may both increase, particularly over the long term. The challenge will be to ensure sustainable growth in agricultural production without compromising environmental quality and natural resources.