Socioeconomic development, family planning, and fertility in China

Abstract

The relationships between socioeconomic development family planning and fertility among the 28 subregions of China circa 1982 were examined. The dependent variable was the total fertility rate in 1981. The 17 development variables include many of the social economic and demographic factors shown in earlier studies to be influential in accounting for fertility among the Chinese subregions. Table 1 presents means and standard deviations for the total fertility rate (TFR) the 17 development variables and the 11 family planning variables. The total fertility rate in 1981 had an average value among the 28 areas of 2.69 varying from lows of 1.32 in Shanghai 1.59 in Beijing and 1.65 in Tianjin to highs of 4.36 in Guizhou 4.12 in Ningxia and 4.10 in Guangxi. The relative effects of the varibles on fertility varied considerably. 4 of the family planning variables had the highest correlations: the first-birth rate (-0.92) the contraceptive use rate (-0.86) the birth planning rate (-0.83) and the 1-child certificate holder rate (-0.82). 8 socioeconomic development variables had correlations with fertility of -0.60 or higher and an additional 5 had correlations between -0.50 and -0.60. 3 separate tests of the theoretical model indicated consistently strong negative direct effects of family planning behavior and weak direct effects of family planning costs. Structural development had strong negative direct effects on fertility when it was introduced in an equation with rural quality of life; it had reduced effects when used in an equation with a development index gauging female status. The direct negative effects of quality of life on fertility were about the same as those of structural development but the 2 development indexes were not used in the same equation due to high collinearity. In regard to indirect effects of development on fertility only the female status index had high negative indirect effects through family planning behavior. All 4 development indexes had trivial indirect effects via the combined path through family planning costs and family planning behavior. The findings essentially are consistent with other analyzes.