Abstract
Empirical studies investigating long-term trends in wildfires’ frequency and severity have been relatively scarce in Europe. Number of fire events, total burnt area and average fire size were studied between 1961 and 2017 in Italy with the aim to identify homogeneous time periods with similar wildfire frequency and severity and correlate them with the background socioeconomic context. Fire attributes had a diverging behavior over time: the number of fires was the highest in the 1970s and the early 1980s; total burnt area was relatively more constant over time with a peak in the 1980s; and, finally, average fire size decreased quite homogeneously from the peak observed in the 1960s and early 1970s. The number of fires and average fire size were significantly influenced by the value of the same variable one year before. Investigating long-term historical outlines of forest fires, a mixed approach based on time-series statistical analysis, multivariate techniques and regressive models intended to define changes in fire regimes and socioeconomic development. In fact, the comparative valuation of the socioeconomic aspects and wildfire trends can reveal a key step to recognizing mitigation and preventive possibilities. Through a multivariate analysis, a substantial difference in the socioeconomic profile can emerge by decade, evidencing a (more or less) rapid socioeconomic development in relation to the evolution of forest fires in Italy.
Highlights
Having a long fire history, Mediterranean countries, e.g., Italy, are sensitive to wildfires and respond through dedicated legislation, policies and practical measures to increasing fire exposure driven by land-use and climate changes [1,2,3]
In Europe, according to the Burned Areas Perimeters (BAP) dataset of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), Spain, France, Portugal, Italy and Greece account for 78% of total burnt area and 84% of the total number of fires recorded in Europe in the 2000–2013 period [7]
This study investigates long-term historical patterns of forest fires in Italy (1961–2017) using a mixed approach based on time-series statistical analysis, multivariate techniques and regressive models aimed at defining changes in fire regimes vis à vis socioeconomic development
Summary
Having a long fire history, Mediterranean countries, e.g., Italy, are sensitive to wildfires and respond through dedicated legislation, policies and practical measures to increasing fire exposure driven by land-use and climate changes [1,2,3]. Wildfires, frequently occurring in woodlands, are usually called “forest fires”, depending on type of vegetation being burnt [10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21]. In regions such as the Mediterranean basin, both forested and non-forested areas result in being highly fire-prone due to climatic characteristics since fire plays a vital role in the ecosystem structure and function [2,8,22,23]
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