Abstract
There has been evidence demonstrating that China has had a persistently low and below-replacement level fertility since early 1990s, causing concerns of a rapidly aging population and sustainability of the Chinese economy. To avoid adverse effects of excessively low fertility, the Chinese government has recently changed its family planning policy from "one-child policy" to "two-child policy." Nonetheless, the effectiveness of the newly initiated two-child policy is questionable if women's average desired number of children or desired fertility for their lifetime is below the threshold fertility allowed by the two-child policy. Therefore, this study argues that it would be interesting and pertinent to know women's fertility desires under the circumstances of no policy restrictions and understand major factors that may affect their desired fertility. Based on a multi-stage stratified cluster sampling survey with 2,516 women respondents in rural Shaanxi, this study tries to estimate desired fertility of rural women and evaluate the impact of important socioeconomic factors on their desired fertility. The results of this study reveal that the average lifetime desired fertility for rural women of childbearing age in Shaanxi is about 1.71, below the total fertility rate at the replacement level. The findings of this study suggest that women's marriage age, the pecuniary costs of having children, women's income forgone for having children, and social security benefits available for rural residents at retirement age, are significantly and negatively related to desired fertility. However, rural women's cultural views towards fertility are significantly but positively related to their desired fertility. This study further confirms that China has entered an era of low fertility, and thus, any policy restrictions on fertility may no longer be necessary. Instead, government programs which support childbearing and childrearing are needed to prevent excessive low fertility and rapid aging of the population.
Highlights
China had a very high fertility rate due to its cultural tradition of family’s obsession with male heirs to extend family lineage and endorsement of early marriage, resulting in a huge and increasing population size [1]
Based on the discussion of economic theories of fertility and the current context of China’s rural fertility, we argue that the following socioeconomic factors may have important impacts on rural women’s desired fertility, including women’s age at the time of survey, age at first marriage, education, women’s income, number of siblings, direct cost of child, women’s view on traditional culture towards fertility, and social security coverage available to the elderly after retirement age
The average number of siblings that women and their spouses had is around 4; the mean yearly income of women was around 17,100 Chinese Yuan; the average direct costs of a child before age 6 in rural Shaanxi is around 18,400 Chinese Yuan; the average monthly social security payment that an elderly could get after age 60 was about 122.92 Chinese Yuan
Summary
The primary objectives of this study were to evaluate rural women’s desired fertility level, and to identify its influencing factors. Before the survey was conducted, the purpose of the study was clearly explained to each respondent, and oral consents were obtained from all participants
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