Socio-Economic Conditions and Party Politics in Japan: A Statistical Analysis of the 1969 General Election

Abstract

L ven a cursory review of Japanese political development during the 1960s can attest to an unmistakable change in the complex interrelations of Japanese political parties. It seems clear that the relative position of the ruling Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP) has somewhat diminished in influence and that the pre-eminence of the Japan Socialist Party (JSP) has substantially dwindled among the progressive elements. At the same time each of the three minor parties-the Clean Government Party (CGP or Komeito), the Japan Communist Party (JCP), and the Democratic Socialist Party (DSP) -has registered an appreciable increase in support during the latest national election held in December 1969. The LDP obtained less than a majority of the popular votes for the second time in 15 years and the JSP suffered a net loss of about 2.7 million votes and 50 seats in the 486-member House of Representatives. These electoral results not only repudiate the current possibility of a functional two-party system for Japan, but also challenge the viability of what Scalapino and Masumi have called a one-and-onehalf-party system.'1 An important question is whether the election results in any way reflect the increasingly affluent and pluralistic conditions of Japan's economic and social life. This article is designed to explore the relation between affluence and voting and to assess the relations between selected socio-economic variables as measured at prefectural levels and variations in party strength in the 1969 general-election vote for the House of Representatives. Japan is composed of 46 local administrative units: 42 ken, or