Socioeconomic burden of air pollution in China: Province-level analysis based on energy economic model

Abstract

In this study, we apply to China the China Regional Energy Model, developed as part of the Regional Emissions Air-Quality Climate Health (REACH) assessment framework, and estimate PM2.5-associated health costs. We estimate that, in 2015, exposure to PM2.5 caused a nationwide welfare loss of US$248 billion (3.6% of the baseline welfare level). Over half the cost is from mortalities associated with chronic exposure, followed by broader economic loss (38%) and direct loss from short-term exposure (9%). The cost varies among provinces (0.5%–5.8% of the baseline welfare level), due to subnational heterogeneity in air quality, population density, and income levels. The cost in absolute terms is large in populous, coastal provinces, such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, but when the local economy size is controlled for, the Greater Beijing area and central inland provinces also suffer large welfare losses in relative terms.