Socio-demographic transitions among nationals of GCC countries: implications for migration and labour force trends

Abstract

The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) are demographically unique in several ways. Non-nationals now comprise 47% of the total GCC population; nationals are a minority in all countries, except Oman and Saudi Arabia. Thus, aggregated data including both nationals and non-nationals provide a highly misleading picture of the evolving demographic situation. This paper describes socio-demographic changes among GCC nationals from the 1970s to the present, and outlines the trends in outflows from the six major sending countries. It then discusses the implications of the socio-demographic transitions among nationals for future migration to GCC countries from Asian countries, taking cognizance of the existing labor force patterns of the indigenous population, as well as the migration policies of the sending as well as receiving countries. GCC countries have among the lowest crude death rates, and infant mortality rates are generally less than 10 per 1000 live births. Fertility has declined but still hovers around 3-4 children per woman, resulting in very high rates of population growth and young populations. About 36-38% of the population in most countries are aged less than 15. These trends have several implications for unemployment rates and actions to replace foreign workers with nationals.