Societal Pathways of Cooperation for Water-related Conflict Mitigation

Abstract

Over the past decade, water conflicts have risen, and cooperation has declined. Research highlights multiple factors driving this change, with climate change acting as a threat multiplier. Human activities, like dam construction and irrigation, and climate-induced hydro-climatic shifts, including extreme precipitation and prolonged droughts, contribute to the risk of increased water conflicts. To guide interventions and reverse this trend, our focus is on enhancing the understanding of factors that facilitate successful cooperation and mitigate water conflicts effectively. In this study, we investigate cooperation and conflict events worldwide in the last 70 years, together with climatic and socioeconomic factors, such as wealth, export dependency, demographics, water use, and hydro-climate trends. The dataset on cooperation and conflict events used is based on the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database and Water Conflict Chronology in combination with more current cooperation events extracted from media news reports. Relationships between investigated factors and cooperation are analyzed by combining panel data analysis and qualitative text content analysis of events. The results provide a deeper understanding of the factors behind why certain events are more successful in achieving conflict mitigation than others. We found that cooperation between countries struggling with water-related challenges can reduce expected conflicts over the next five years. The economic benefits of cooperation show a positive correlation between water-related cooperation and improved wealth (measured by GDP growth), particularly in countries with high export dependency. As such, economic collaboration can be an effective tool for enhancing resilience in high-water stress areas, where collaboration in these areas can contribute to a substantial reduction in future conflicts while simultaneously improving economic prosperity. Engaging in cooperation with other countries can therefore contribute to economic growth and resilience, as well as decreasing conflict risk. Understanding successful conflict mitigation factors can provide helpful insights to global policymakers and leaders in water management to avoid future conflict based on current and projected water availability.   Keywords: water conflict; collaboration; conflict mitigation; mixed methods; socioeconomic factors