Societal implications of sustainable energy action plans: from energy modelling to stakeholder learning

Giovanni Bernardo,Simone D’Alessandro

doi:10.1080/09640568.2018.1483905

Giovanni Bernardo, Simone D’Alessandro

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2018.1483905

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Abstract

This article investigates the potential impact of sustainable energy action plans (SEAPs) on local development through a two-step methodology involving participatory planning and quantitative analysis. The first phase relies on a participatory system mapping (PSM) approach and generates a causal structure at the basis of the urban model. In the second phase, we transform the qualitative map into a system dynamic model which evaluates the effect of the SEAP on social, economic and environmental indicators. This methodology was applied to the case of Cascina Municipality (Italy). Through scenario analysis, we show that some indirect feedback can harm the achievement of the 20% emission reduction target. This process allows the local authority and stakeholders to evaluate the impact of emission reduction policies on CO2 emissions and local development, thereby generating collective learning on the systemic implications of the plan. We show that this method can enhance the ambition of emission mitigation efforts by small towns.

Highlights

In recent years, the European Union has increasingly recognised the leading role of cities, towns and other urban areas in mitigation and adaptation strategies to deal with climate change (Dent et al, 2016, McPhearson et al, 2016)
We develop qualitative participatory systems mapping (PSM) to grasp the main critical causal relationships and feedback processes among a specific set of variables and indicators, starting from a simple question: how can SEAPs influence the quality of life in the area while achieving the CO2 emissions reduction target? The aim of this step is to help local politicians and administrators to select the most effective measures and to generate a collective learning process on the systemic implications of the plan
We run two sets of simulations including the feedback prompted by population dynamics by comparing the business as usual (BAU) scenario – without energy policies – with two SEAP bounding scenarios where we explore the potential effects of energy policies

Summary

Introduction

The European Union has increasingly recognised the leading role of cities, towns and other urban areas in mitigation and adaptation strategies to deal with climate change (Dent et al, 2016, McPhearson et al, 2016). The spread of different kinds of voluntary environmental agreements is likely to incentivise urban climate governance innovations but, at the same time, makes the assessment of their success and effectiveness very arduous (van der Heijden, 2012). This calls for a critical consideration of the role of cities in climate governance, as pointed out in the Editorial (van der Heijden, Patterson, Juhola & Wolfram, this issue)

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