Social-ecological Resilience Modeling: Water Stress Effects in the Bighorn Sheep Management System in Baja California Sur, Mexico

Abstract

Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) management involves ecological and socioeconomic aspects, creating a social-ecological system (SES). Social-ecological thresholds can be identified in the system to assess its specific resilience in response to climate stressors. Thus, the aim of this study is to build a dynamic model to assess whether this system is resilient to a particular stressor (water stress). In this study, the SES is considered resilient if the bighorn population is sufficiently large to provide economic revenue to landowners and promote conservation action. We validate and formalize this model by conducting semistructured interviews to Bonfil ejido landowners located in Baja California Sur (BCS), Mexico, and to experts in the field of recreational hunting and wildlife management. To explore the changes in specific resilience in this SES, we conduct simulations to assess the impact of rainfall variability patterns on the system. Our results indicate that rainfall variations with respect to the historical record have the potential to disrupt both the species and the local economy and that the lack of adaptive capacity in both harvest and conservation strategies may affect the dynamics of the whole SES. Finally, this paper explores how adaptive wildlife conservation management strategies can enhance the resilience of both subsystems in this SES.