Social vulnerability in three high-poverty climate change hot spots: What does the climate change literature tell us?

Josephine Tucker,Naomi Oates,Shirley Matheson,Roger Few,Mona Daoud,Sobona Mtisi,Declan Conway

doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0741-6

Abstract

Abstract This paper reviews the state of knowledge on social vulnerability to climate change in three hot spots (deltas, semi-arid regions and snowpack- or glacier-fed river basins) in Africa, Central Asia and South Asia, using elements of systematic review methods. Social vulnerability is defined as a dynamic state of societies comprising exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We examine whether the hot spots have specific characteristics that tend to increase or decrease social vulnerability, consider suitable scales of analysis for understanding vulnerability, and explore the conceptions of vulnerability adopted in the climate change literature and the nature of the insights this generates. Finally, we identify knowledge gaps in this literature. All three hot spots are characterized by high levels of natural resource dependence, with increasing environmental degradation. They also exhibit unequal policies and patterns of development, which benefit certain segments of society while making others more vulnerable. Vulnerability is driven by multiple factors operating at different scales; however, characterization of cross-scalar interactions is poorly developed in the majority of studies reviewed. Most studies are either large scale, such as broad comparisons of vulnerability across countries, or local, documenting community-level processes. Detailed understanding of the interactions between climate change impacts on natural systems, and socio-economic trajectories, including adaptation, also emerges as a knowledge gap.

Highlights

This paper is one of seven commissioned by the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) to explore the current state of knowledge on climate adaptation in three climate change ‘hot spots’ (De Souza et al this issue)
This paper reviews the state of knowledge on social vulnerability to climate change in three hot spots in Africa, Central Asia and South Asia, using elements of systematic review methods
We examine whether the hot spots have specific characteristics that tend to increase or decrease social vulnerability, consider suitable scales of analysis for understanding vulnerability, and explore the conceptions of vulnerability adopted in the climate change literature and the nature of the insights this generates

Summary

Introduction

This paper is one of seven commissioned by the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) to explore the current state of knowledge on climate adaptation in three climate change ‘hot spots’ (De Souza et al this issue). CARIAA defines hot spots as ‘geographical area[s] where a strong climate signal is combined with a large concentration of vulnerable, poor or marginalized people’. This review examines the state of knowledge found in climate change-related literature (see below for how this is defined) on social vulnerability in these hot spots, using elements of a systematic review approach. An overarching question guides the analysis of content: are there specific characteristics of the hot spots that are identified as increasing or decreasing social vulnerability, and which aspects of vulnerability are poorly characterized in the climate-related literature? We consider which aspects of vulnerability are explicitly identified as research gaps and reflect on what this means for the possible direction of future scholarship in this area

Methods

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Discussion

Conclusion