Social Simulation of Promoting Electric Vehicles for Evaluation of Policies in Local City

Abstract

The present study aims that the effect of policies for reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission is estimated with simulating the vehicle type choice. As the decision of vehicle type choice would be changed by influence of the local community, the local interaction should be considered for estimation of CO2 emission. Therefore, the multi-agent simulation (MAS) model is applied to estimate the effect of the policies for economic incentive. The vehicle purchase process is modeled with the data of the questionnaire. As not only the conformity effect but also non-conformity effect is assumed, hierarchical Bayesian model is applied to describe the vehicle type choice considering with heterogeneity and social interaction. Elements of vehicle, such as price for purchase, price of fuel, cruising range are regarded as significant factor for vehicle type choice. The reduction of CO2 emission as the effect of the policies is estimated using the proposed MAS model. From the view point of reduction of CO2 emission, it can be found that the difference of the estimated result between with and without heterogeneity is inconsistent and not small.