Abstract
Background: The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement different nonpharmacological interventions (NPI) to preserve their health systems. Spain was one of the first and most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, we aimed to assess the impacts of different NPI on COVID-19 epidemiology, healthcare costs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Methods: A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiological model was created to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was then used to populate an economic model to predict healthcare costs and Q4 2020 GDP decline, estimated through a multiple linear regression model based on NPIs and GDP decline from 42 countries during Q2 2020. Thirteen scenarios combining different NPI were consecutively simulated in the epidemiological and economic models. Findings: With no changes in testing rate or stringency (lockdown), 2·38 million new exposed cases in the subsequent 90 days were estimated in Spain. Both increased testing and stringency could reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths. While policies based on increased testing rates led to higher healthcare costs, increased stringency led to greater GDP declines with differences of up to 4·4% points. Increased test sensitivity may lead to a reduction of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and to the implementation of pooling techniques that can increase throughput testing capacity. Interpretation: Alternative strategies for controlling the COVID-19 spread lead to differing economic outcomes. Decision-makers may utilize this tool to identify the most suitable strategy considering epidemiological and economic outcomes. Funding: This study is funded by Grifols S.A.Declaration of Interests: EV is employee from Grifols S.A. FJC, JS-R-M, RR, PB and MMC received honoraria from Grifols S.A. for their participation in the study as subject experts, within the Fair Market Value range. DC and AK are employees from IQVIA, which was the Clinical Research Organization hired by Grifols S.A. for the implementation of this study and medical writing support. MCR is employee from Grifols S.S.N.A.
Highlights
As of 18 March 2021, over 120 million COVID-19 confirmed cases have been reported globally, leading to over 2.6 million deaths [1]
These restrictions managed to reduce the spread of COVID-19, but led to a 17.8% drop in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) vs. Q1 2020, placing Spain in the top three OECD countries with the steepest GDP decline during Q2 2020 [5]
In an effort to support decision-making processes, we aim to assess the epidemiological, direct healthcare costs, and GDP impacts of different social restrictions and testing strategies that may help control the COVID-19 pandemic based on the particular Spanish case
Summary
As of 18 March 2021, over 120 million COVID-19 confirmed cases have been reported globally, leading to over 2.6 million deaths [1]. Despite its health system being among the world’s best performing [8], the rapid spread of the first COVID-19 wave overwhelmed the health system, resulting in the government declaring the State of Emergency on 14 March 2020, and imposing one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe, in line with those imposed in Italy and France [3,4,9] These restrictions managed to reduce the spread of COVID-19, but led to a 17.8% drop in GDP vs Q1 2020, placing Spain in the top three OECD countries with the steepest GDP decline during Q2 2020 [5]. With an already fragile economy and exhausted health system, Spain has been facing waves of COVID-19 cases, leaving national and regional governments continually facing difficult policy decisions [7]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
