Abstract
BackgroundAlthough dynamic models are increasingly used by decision makers as a source of insight to guide interventions in order to control communicable disease outbreaks, such models have long suffered from a risk of rapid obsolescence due to failure to keep updated with emerging epidemiological evidence. The application of statistical filtering algorithms to high-velocity data streams has recently demonstrated effectiveness in allowing such models to be automatically regrounded by each new set of incoming observations. The attractiveness of such techniques has been enhanced by the emergence of a new generation of geospatially specific, high-velocity data sources, including daily counts of relevant searches and social media posts. The information available in such electronic data sources complements that of traditional epidemiological data sources.ObjectiveThis study aims to evaluate the degree to which the predictive accuracy of pandemic projection models regrounded via machine learning in daily clinical data can be enhanced by extending such methods to leverage daily search counts.MethodsWe combined a previously published influenza A (H1N1) pandemic projection model with the sequential Monte Carlo technique of particle filtering, to reground the model bu using confirmed incident case counts and search volumes. The effectiveness of particle filtering was evaluated using a norm discrepancy metric via predictive and dataset-specific cross-validation.ResultsOur results suggested that despite the data quality limitations of daily search volume data, the predictive accuracy of dynamic models can be strongly elevated by inclusion of such data in filtering methods.ConclusionsThe predictive accuracy of dynamic models can be notably enhanced by tapping a readily accessible, publicly available, high-velocity data source. This work highlights a low-cost, low-burden avenue for strengthening model-based outbreak intervention response planning using low-cost public electronic datasets.
Highlights
The capacity to accurately project communicable disease outbreak evolution is of great value in public health planning for prevention and control strategies
Our results suggested that despite the data quality limitations of daily search volume data, the predictive accuracy of dynamic models can be strongly elevated by inclusion of such data in filtering methods
We investigated the predictive accuracy gains from applying particle filtering using both traditional and search volume data to estimate latent states of a compartmental transmission model
Summary
The capacity to accurately project communicable disease outbreak evolution is of great value in public health planning for prevention and control strategies Use of such information can inform resource allocation, including surge-capacity planning and planning of the timing of outbreak response immunization campaigns, and, when applied across distinct scenarios, provide a basis for evaluating tradeoffs between intervention strategies. The application of statistical filtering algorithms to high-velocity data streams has recently demonstrated effectiveness in allowing such models to be automatically regrounded by each new set of incoming observations The attractiveness of such techniques has been enhanced by the emergence of a new generation of geospatially specific, high-velocity data sources, including daily counts of relevant searches and social media posts. The information available in such electronic data sources complements that of traditional epidemiological data sources
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