Social impact bonds: The goose and the golden eggs at risk

Abstract

AbstractPublic goods and services such as prisons are often underfunded compared with private goods and services. Social impact bonds (SIBs) are a new financial vehicle to increase the use of private funds for public good. SIBs use a paid‐for‐success, performance‐based structure to reallocate risk and reward. In the current case, the SIB changes a critical reinforcing loop from a vicious cycle of decay to a virtuous cycle of improvement that can perpetuate SIB benefits far after the bond has been repaid. A simulation model of recidivism at Her Majesty's Prison (HMP) Peterborough and the related SIB is developed to identify high‐leverage parameters and dominant feedback loops. These are used to explain SIB success or failure for two primary participants (HMP system and SIB investors). Model analysis also reveals a tipping point structure that puts the Peterborough programme at risk. Contributions include a formal SIB model, improved understanding of SIB structure and behaviour, an example of tipping point structures in a social system and recommendations concerning SIB design and management.