Social-economic processes of fuel and raw materials region: diversification, mathematical modeling and regularities

Abstract

The paper proposes the structure of production diversification in the fuel and raw material region. A distinctive feature of diversification is the provision of regional reproduction of natural resources – reserves of mineral deposits, as well as fuel and energy deposits – traditionally consumed energy products. The algorithm for determining the regularities of socio-economic processes in the region is developed and the results of its concretization are presented. The difference of the proposed algorithm is the joint accounting of quantitative and qualitative information, the emergence properties of social and economic systems under favorable and the following problem situations: crisis, resource scarcity, uncertainty of the prediction of changes in external conditions, changes in legislative bases. It is suggested to implement identification of possible negative processes at the initial stage and when eliminating them step by step: the formation of a hypothesis about the existence of regularity, cognitive modeling, formulation of statements. Based on the results of cognitive modeling of development scenarios for fuel and raw material regions, a set of statements that form the methodological basis for correcting hypotheses about regularities is justified. Four regularities of social and economic processes of the fuel and raw materials region are revealed.