Social-ecological analysis of timely rice planting in Eastern India

Anton Urfels,Ram K Malik,Paul C Struik,Andrew J Mcdonald,Pankaj Kumar,Madhulika Singh,Gerardo Van Halsema,Timothy J Krupnik,S P Poonia,Balwinder-Singh Balwinder-Singh,Deepak K Singh

doi:10.1007/s13593-021-00668-1

Abstract

Timely crop planting is a foundation for climate-resilient rice-wheat systems of the Eastern Gangetic Plains—a global food insecurity and poverty hotspot. We hypothesize that the capacity of individual farmers to plant on time varies considerably, shaped by multifaceted enabling factors and constraints that are poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, two complementary datasets were used to characterize drivers and decision processes that govern the timing of rice planting in this region. The first dataset was a large agricultural management survey (rice-wheat: n = 15,245; of which rice: n = 7597) from a broad geographic region that was analyzed by machine learning methods. The second dataset was a discussion-based survey (n = 112) from a more limited geography that we analyzed with graph theory tools to elicit nuanced information on planting decisions. By combining insights from these methods, we show for the first time that differences in rice planting times are primarily shaped by ecosystem and climate factors while social factors play a prominent secondary role. Monsoon onset, surface and groundwater availability, and land type determine village-scale mean planting times whereas, for resource-constrained farmers who tend to plant later ceteris paribus, planting is further influenced by access to farm machinery, seed, fertilizer, and labor. Also, a critical threshold for economically efficient pumping appears at a groundwater depth of around 4.5 m; below this depth, farmers do not irrigate and delay planting. Without collective action to spread risk through synchronous timely planting, ecosystem factors such as threats posed by pests and wild animals may further deter early planting by individual farmers. Accordingly, we propose a three-pronged strategy that combines targeted strengthening of agricultural input chains, agroadvisory development, and coordinated rice planting and wildlife conservation to support climate-resilient agricultural development in the Eastern Gangetic Plains.

Highlights

1.1 Timely crop planting: a critical decision point for agroecosystem resilienceAttaining food security in the densely populated Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains—a global poverty hotspot—requires the negotiation of trade-offs between productivity, risk, and the ecological footprint of agriculture, a challenge further compounded by the impacts of climate change (Park et al 2018; Struik and Kuyper 2017; Ortiz et al 2008)
Building agroecosystem resilience—i.e., the capacity to maintain core functions in the light of environmental and market shocks (Nystrom et al 2019)—and maintaining high levels of crop productivity are often predicated on timely crop planting and harvesting (Singh et al 2019)
Timely crop planting raises system productivity by (a) mitigating risks of yield losses caused by pushing crop growth into periods of sub-optimal or extreme weather conditions such as cold and heat waves, drought, or flooding; (b) increasing resource use efficiencies; and (c) allowing for more crops to be grown per year on the same land (Acharjee et al 2019)

Summary

Introduction

1.1 Timely crop planting: a critical decision point for agroecosystem resilienceAttaining food security in the densely populated Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains—a global poverty hotspot—requires the negotiation of trade-offs between productivity, risk, and the ecological footprint of agriculture, a challenge further compounded by the impacts of climate change (Park et al 2018; Struik and Kuyper 2017; Ortiz et al 2008). 1.1 Timely crop planting: a critical decision point for agroecosystem resilience. Planting aligns crop cycles with favorable climate conditions resulting in higher and generally more stable yields. Timely crop planting raises system productivity by (a) mitigating risks of yield losses caused by pushing crop growth into periods of sub-optimal or extreme weather conditions such as cold and heat waves, drought, or flooding; (b) increasing resource use efficiencies; and (c) allowing for more crops to be grown per year on the same land (Acharjee et al 2019). While several studies have analyzed optimal time windows for planting, agroecosystem characteristics and farmers’ decision processes that enhance or limit the potential to plant crops during optimal time windows have received less attention (Acharjee et al 2019; Singh et al 2019; Mingxia et al 2020)

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