Abstract
BackgroundThe UK government introduced social distancing measures between 16–22 March 2020, aiming to slow down transmission of COVID-19.AimTo explore the spreading of COVID-19 in relation to population density after the introduction of social distancing measures.Design & settingLongitudinal design with 5-weekly COVID-19 incidence rates per 100 000 people for 149 English Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs), between 16 March and 19 April 2020.MethodMultivariable multilevel model to analyse weekly incidence rates per 100 000 people; time was level-1 unit and UTLA level-2 unit. Population density was divided into quartiles. The model included an interaction between week and population density. Potential confounders were percentage aged ≥65, percentage non-white British, and percentage in two highest classes of the National Statistics Socioeconomic Classification. Co-variates were male life expectancy at birth, and COVID-19 prevalence rate per 100 000 people on March 15. Confounders and co-variates were standardised around the mean.ResultsIncidence rates per 100 000 people peaked in the week of March 30–April 5, showing higher adjusted incidence rate per 100 000 people (46.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 40.6 to 51.8) in most densely populated ULTAs (quartile 4) than in less densely populated ULTAs (quartile 1: 33.3, 95% CI = 27.4 to 37.2; quartile 2: 35.9, 95% CI = 31.6 to 40.1). Thereafter, incidence rate dropped in the most densely populated ULTAs resulting in rate of 22.4 (95% CI = 16.9 to 28.0) in the week of April 13–19; this was lower than in quartiles 1, 2, and 3, respectively 31.4 (95% CI = 26.5 to 36.3), 34.2 (95% CI = 29.9 to 38.5), and 43.2 (95% CI = 39.0 to 47.4).ConclusionAfter the introduction of social distancing measures, the incidence rates per 100 000 people dropped stronger in most densely populated ULTAs.
Highlights
Thereafter, incidence rate dropped in the most densely populated ULTAs resulting in rate of 22.4 in the week of April 13–19; this was lower than in quartiles 1, 2, and 3, respectively 31.4, 34.2, and 43.2
In England, the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases rose quickly from the beginning of March 2020.1 Between 16–22 March, the UK government introduced social distancing measures with the aim to slow down the transmission of the virus.[2]
This study’s aim is to explore the spreading of COVID-19 in relation to population density after the introduction of social distancing measures, as adherence to these measures might be most challenging in areas of high population density given the high levels of interpersonal contact.[3]
Summary
In England, the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases rose quickly from the beginning of March 2020.1 Between 16–22 March, the UK government introduced social distancing measures with the aim to slow down the transmission of the virus.[2] Schools, restaurants, pubs, clubs, and indoor sport and leisure facilities had to close. People had to stay at home and were only allowed to travel for food and health reasons, during which they had to keep a 2-metre distance from each other where possible. People aged ≥70 years, and those with certain health conditions were urged to self-isolate. The UK government introduced social distancing measures between 16–22 March 2020, aiming to slow down transmission of COVID-19
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