Social Change in Religious Organizations: Consequences of Clergy Decline in the U.S. Catholic Church

Abstract

Using time series data from a sample of 59 Catholic dioceses and cross-sectional data on 3045 priests, we estimate population parameters for entrance, exit, and growth rates and for the age distribution of U.S. diocesan priests from 1966–73. Three series of population projections are made to 2000. A demographic transition is dramatically reducing the size of the clergy, and altering the age and normative structures of the church toward an older, more conservative and more homogeneous professional staff. Economic, political, and normative forces set in motion by the decline may bring about a transformation of program priorities and reproduce the structures of domination in the church. Theoretical issues on the relationship between size and structure are clarified and micro- and macrolevel processes investigated in a unified research design.