Social Change and Futures Practice

Abstract

The study of society contains two branches: statics and dynamics. Social stability is the ability of a group to persist over time, even as its members come and go. Stability rests on biology, culture, and agreements (laws, contracts, etc.). Social change is the ability of a group to behave differently, even to creating brand-new elements, within the same social identity. The mechanisms of social change are more complex, involving natural selection, self-organization, and the emergent properties of organic systems. As a result, transformational change is rare, but so is natural, incremental change. The result is “sticky” change that waits too long, then lurches to catch up. Human intention, although the single most powerful force for change, is not as powerful as the many unconscious forces at work in society and the environment. These assumptions are different from those of many futurists.