Abstract

Taking New Zealand as case-study, this paper shows that "ageing" involves far more than a simple shift from higher proportions of the total population at younger ages to the growth of concentrations at older ages. Yet, this is the model that often forms the base for policy-making. Instead, trajectories towards ageing (age-structural transitions) vary between national populations, and between regions within countries. Moreover, ageing per se will often be proceeded by "population waves" (large birth cohorts) and then troughs (small cohorts), a process termed "disordered cohort flows". All these factors pose significant problems for policy-making, but clearly the traditional policy model must be refined so that it is more sensitive to these different trajectories.

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