Abstract
Climate change exacerbates the effects of water scarcity on livelihoods. Governments can intervene by structuring incentives for agricultural adaptations so that farmers can choose the ones that create more benefits for the society as a whole. This requires consideration of a range of different benefits to different groups within the social cost-benefit analysis (CBA). We assess the social and private profitability of two alternative tree-based adaptation techniques that have received state support in the traditional barley cropping/rangeland systems in Central Tunisia: olive tree plantation, and intercropping with cactus. The results showed that society does not benefit from offering incentives for olive production. The production of irrigated olive trees without incentives is profitable for farmers and for society, while rainfed plantation is not profitable at all. However, it is possible for farmers to increase their incomes without increasing agricultural water use if they are encouraged to adopt intercropping with cactus to supplement livestock food and watering. The findings highlight scope for policies to balance between returns both for society, and for farmers, as revealed through the application of quantitative social CBA.
Highlights
Water scarcity in the Mediterranean area is expected to worsen under potential climate change (CC) predictions (IPCC, 2014)
Further discussion of the potential strategies for agricultural sustainability under climate change and increasing water scarcity in Tunisia is presented in Zouabi and Peridy (2015)
Survey results indicate that each household owns an average of 14.7 ha (42% cereals, 19% olive tree, 13% cactus, 23% fallow and pasture and 6% irrigated crops) (Table 1)
Summary
Water scarcity in the Mediterranean area is expected to worsen under potential climate change (CC) predictions (IPCC, 2014). In Tunisia, CC adaptation (MESD, 2015) is based on a projected increase in average temperature of 2.1°C and a decrease in annual rainfall by 20% in 2050 (GIZ, 2007; Lhomme et al, 2009; Bird et al, 2016). Climate changes have been affecting the livelihoods of the low income households depending on family farming in central and southern parts of the country (Verner and Breisinger, 2013; Zouabi and Peridy, 2015; Ben Zaied and Zouabi, 2016). Further discussion of the potential strategies for agricultural sustainability under climate change and increasing water scarcity in Tunisia is presented in Zouabi and Peridy (2015). Decision makers’ interventions are intended to improve the outcomes of climate change adaptation for vulnerable communities, and for the society as a whole. Policy failures can occur due to the lack of information and/or
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