Social and Islamic diffusion in the Nordic countries with the example of Sweden by year 2050

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to study the Muslim migration flow on the territory of Northern Europe in the last quarter of XX – first half of XXI centuries, the analysis of pattern and genesis of a new geopolitical reality in the region on the example of Sweden, as applied to its state by year 2050. In the process of writing the paper, the authors relied on advanced achievements of scientific thought, described in geographers’ fundamental research (the study was based on the theory of innovations’ diffusion by a Swedish geographer T. Hagerstrand), in sociologists’ works (theory of innovations’ diffusion by G. Tarde and E. Rogers), historians, anthropologists, economists and philosophers’ research. It is the example of Sweden which fully illustrates the paradox of the whole situation and, at the same time, allows to make the main conclusion on the basis of the study conducted in this paper. Thus, in 1975, the Muslim population of the Kingdom was 0.25%; in 2017, according to official data, every tenth citizen is Muslim. Currently, in 2019, Sweden only has a Muslim population exceeding five populations of Iceland. If the same trend continues (without repetition of the European migration crisis of 2015), by 2025-2027 every fifth, and by 2035-2040 every fourth citizen will be Muslim (Fig. 1-9 illustrate this idea). We have studied, analyzed and presented all stages of migration processes development in Sweden from 1995 to 2020 on the generalized cartographic material and predicted it for the period from 2020 to 2050, respectively. By 2020, the Muslim population of Sweden will be more than 20%. This migration diffusion will affect, first of all, 13 of the 25 largest municipalities, where the ethnic, autochthonous Swedish population will appear the minority. And in just a few years, the same situation will happen in the remaining three largest municipalities: Westeros, Orebro and Norrköping. 70% of Stockholm’s residents and every second resident of southern Sweden will be Muslims. By 2050, it is possible to split the Muslim part of Sweden, up to the administrative and territorial change of interstate borders, especially between Sweden and Denmark, where a Muslim agglomeration has already been formed between Copenhagen and Malmö.