Social and Economic Impact Assessment of Coal Power Phase-Down at the Provincial Level: An Entropy-Based TOPSIS Approach

Abstract

With the rollout of the carbon peak and neutrality targets, conventional coal-fired power plants will gradually be phased down in China’s power system in an orderly manner. The economic and social impact of the energy transition is a vital topic that requires scientific measurements and evaluation. In this paper, we establish a comprehensive approach to assess the impact of provincial coal power phase-down with 11 indicators covering dimensions of economy, society, and industry. An entropy-based Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) approach is adopted to calculate entropy weight, relative closeness, and other evaluation benchmark data. Then, the influence degree in 30 provinces is ranked based on the assessment. The results show that there is a significant regional imbalance in the process of coal power phase-down, among which Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other coal base provinces are the most vulnerable regions bound by their huge raw coal production and coal industry employment. Although the coal power industry is less affected than the coal industry, it will face pressure from the optimization of coal power units, followed by the dual impact of taxation and employment issues. Finally, the potential impacts of coal power phase-down and policy implications are proposed.